[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices continued to pull back on July 29, with US Fed officials stating they were not ready to cut interest rate on Wednesday

SMM Nickel July 29 News:

Macro News:

(1)"Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos published an article stating that US Fed officials expect they will ultimately need to continue cutting interest rates, though they are not ready to do so this Wednesday.Their disagreement lies in what evidence they need to see first, and whether waiting for full clarity would be a mistake.

(2) The Market Supervision Development Planning Symposium was held in Beijing from July 27 to the morning of July 28. The meeting emphasized promoting a stronger domestic market, accelerating the improvement of market supervision foundational systems, breaking down regional protectionism and market fragmentation, and regulating enterprises' low-quality price-cutting competition in accordance with laws and regulations.

Spot Market:

Today, SMM #1 refined nickel prices ranged between 121,100-123,800 yuan/mt, averaging 122,450 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel quoted between 2,100-2,300 yuan/mt, averaging 2,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt day-on-day. The spot premiums/discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged between -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract fluctuated at lows during the night session, closing down 0.58%. It declined further during the daytime session, with prices at 121,810 yuan/mt by midday, down 0.84%.

The short-term sentiment boost from "anti-rat race" policies on industrial products gradually faded, while exchanges imposed trading limits on sharply rising commodities, prompting speculative capital to exit. Nickel prices pulled back significantly during the night session driven by sentiment.Amid mixed macro signals, nickel prices decoupled from fundamentals and entered a sentiment-driven phase. Subsequent focus will center on China-US tariff negotiations and US Fed rate decisions. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with a projected price range of 120,000-125,000 yuan/mt.